So the Sox had themselves an unpleasant ALDS. The offense went to sleep for the first two games, and when it finally did wake up, the best closer in baseball had the worst outing of his career. Damn it all. Congrats to the Angels, who finally figured out the complicated "occasionally it's ok to draw a walk" concept that had confounded them for so long and thus fielded a big-boy offense.
Anyway, with the Sox done for the year, the talk in Boston inevitably turns to the hot stove. And with the Sox exiting the playoffs in such ignominious fashion, the talk tends a bit shrill. "The offense is rusting away!" "We don't have a legit closer anymore!" "My God, how will we ever compete with the Yankees' endless supply of dollars?" Clearly the Sox are a team in crisis, and only a miraculous offseason will save them. Or, you know, not.
The Red Sox this year won 95 games. Again. In fact, since Theo's front office took over, the Sox have won 95+ every year save 2006. In those 7 years, they've made the playoffs 6 times, the ALCS 4 times (winning two, and losing the other two in Game 7), and have swept two World Series. That's a pretty impressive run. Especially in baseball, where the playoffs are notoriously fluky. This is what Billy Beane meant when he said, "My shit doesn't work in the playoffs." You build a team to win 95 games and make the postseason. Once they're in, it's a sample size of at most 19 games, in which anything can happen. (For example, in the first 19 games of this season, the Yanks were 9-10 and the Royals 10-9. Clearly the Royals just know how to win in April.)
Also, in winning those 95 games, the Sox scored 872 runs (3rd in the AL) and allowed 736 (also 3rd). This was a hell of a team. It had weaknesses, obviously, and several of those weaknesses need to be addressed, but a teamwide overhaul is hardly necessary.
So what to do in the offseason, beyond basic Douglas Adams-style not panicking? Well, here are one complete amateur's ideas, position-by-position:
Catcher: I'm fine with a Martinez-Varitek platoon here. Victor's clearly the superior player, but his time in Cleveland made it pretty clear that an entire season behind the plate isn't an option. Pick up V-Mart's option, give him 100-120 starts, let 'Tek handle the rest (maybe a Wakefield-style "personal catcher" thing could work). Then, at season's end, throw $30 mil a year plus concession rights at Joe Mauer. Because a guy can dream.
First base: Yooouuuukk! Plus Martinez when he's not catching or DHing. Kotchman's also in the mix here, but we'll get to him when we cover third.
Second base: Pat Dusty on the head, congratulate him on a job well done, and invest heavily in those quick stain-remover pens.
Shortstop: Hoo boy. Here's the single biggest hole in the franchise. Shaughnessy's probably already copyrighted "The Curse of Nomah," since it's been a problem ever since 2004. The bigger problem is just that there aren't that many good SS's out there. (Yeah, insert "if only we could draft guys like Hanley Ramirez" joke here.) I think the Sox have two good options here.
1. Trade for J.J. Hardy. Milwaukee's clearly taking the Alcides Escobar Express at short, and it's hard to blame them. So they're heavy one shortstop, and Boston's heavy a few pitching prospects. Toss Michael Bowden or Junichi Tazawa, plus a reliever, at the Brewers, and spend the offseason fixing whatever happened to Hardy's swing this year. We know the kid's got power, and at Fenway he could become a doubles machine. Failing that,
2. Re-sign Alex Gonzalez. Yeah, he's a career .294 OBP hole in the lineup, but the Green/Lowrie platoon wasn't exactly Ripkenesque. He's good with the glove, and hits just enough to not actively harm the team. In other words, he's a shortstop.
Third base: Entirely dependent on Lowell's hip. If the offseason rest is enough to give him his range back (or even a decent approximation thereof), then I'm comfortable with him there. If not, then we need to see what Kotchman can do offensively. If they can get him hitting enough to justify an everyday lineup slot (and the skill set's there), then one could do worse than Kotchman at first and Youkilis at third. If nothing else, Kotchman-Pedroia-Gonzalez-Youkilis might be the best defensive infield in baseball.
DH: Papi finished the year on a power tear, but for the first ten weeks of the season, the Sox might well have been better off letting Beckett and Lester hit for themselves. Theo claims Ortiz is planning to work on whatever went wrong this year over the winter, and Boston fans will certainly be willing to cut him some slack, but if the April-May version of Papi shows up again, a change needs to be made. DH needs to be a wait-and-see.
OF: Drew's fine, Ellsbury's alright. Bay's a free agent, and someone's gonna pay him way too much. I'd say make a serious play for Matt Holliday (younger, better fielder, swing tailor-made for Fenway). Failing that, take a swing at Abreu. I mean, the Wall will scare him shitless out there, but I'll take that hit for a guaranteed .400 OBP.
SP: Pretty solid. Beckett and Lester are the obvious 1-2, Buchholz finally looks ready for primetime, and if Matsuzaka can throw a whole season the way he pitched in September, then the Sox are already 4 deep. If Wake's back is better, he's the probable #5. As far as depth, the Penny-Smoltz moves didn't exactly work out, but the theory was sound. A high-incentive short-term deal for someone like Harden or Sheets wouldn't be a bad idea.
RP: Another area of strength. Despite his Game 3 meltdown, and his higher BB/9 this year, Papelbon's still a top-tier closer. The pen behind him is deep and talented, and there's really no reason to mess with it. There's always a bullpen arm or two on the market, and maybe the Sox'll grab one, but as a complementary piece, not an upgrade.
Miscellany/speculative ideas: Since Theo's shown a definite willingness to trade anyone if it'll improve the club, I figured I'd muse on some guys who could be traded.
1. Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury is a player I enjoy watching, but his skill set is spectacularly overrated and might be more useful to the team as trade bait. Both Colorado and SF seem enamored of speedy outfielders with minimal pop, and both have catchers they're clearly not going to use (Colorado favoring Torrealba over Ianetta, and SF's inexplicable infatuation with anyone other than Buster Posey). Either Ianetta or Posey would be a solid long-term solution at C for the Sox. Another interesting possibility here would be to send him to Anaheim for Brandon Wood, another heavy hitter (and SS!) trapped behind a player who better fits the manager's philosophy.
2. Jonathan Papelbon. There's been a lot of talk in this realm, partly due to Game 3, mostly due to his slightly reduced control this year. Pap's slowly approaching free agency, Theo's made it clear that the Sox won't overpay for a closer, and Danny Bard looks like an awfully good option to take over the 9th. So Pap's value might be pretty damn high. The Rays and O's could both use closers, but I doubt an in-division trade is likely, especially since neither Tampa nor Baltimore is parting with any of their young guys. Either the Braves or Marlins could benefit from a stud closer, and both have interesting outfield prospects kicking around, along with decent young starters. More likely, though, would be a Central team, since the two wins or so one gets from an elite closer would be enough to put a team over the top in either of the Central divisions. Cleveland could be a good spot, or Cincinnati.
OK, that was more than a few thoughts. More later, I imagine, as the postseason winds down and the free agent class sorts out.
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